Polls show Palestinian blocs holding 12 to 15 seats as both Israeli camps fall short

Polling data released this week indicates that neither Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right coalition nor the Jewish Israeli opposition bloc will secure the 61 seats required to form a government in the 120-seat Knesset. Both major camps are forecast to fall short, leaving the outcome of the election scheduled for next week dependent on the 12 to 15 seats projected for Palestinian citizens of Israel.

These seats are expected to be split between the Islamist Ra'am party and the Joint List. The Joint List is an alliance of three smaller parties, including Ta'al. Ahmad Tibi, who has served in the Knesset for more than two decades and leads Ta'al, stated that high turnout among the Arab community is a primary tool for dismantling the current government. He described the goal as bringing the government down by leveraging the votes of a community that constitutes approximately 20 percent of Israel's population.

Political maneuvering has intensified around the potential for a coalition involving these Palestinian parties. Most of the Jewish opposition has ruled out such an alliance, while Netanyahu's allies have campaigned to make the prospect politically toxic. Campaign materials have featured slogans such as "It's [either] the right or Palestine" and "Bibi or Tibi." Historically, Palestinian representation in the cabinet has been minimal, with only two ministers serving in the country's history: Raleb Majadele, who held the sports portfolio for two years, and Issawi Frej, who managed regional coordination for just over a year.

Skepticism persists among voters regarding the opposition's willingness to cooperate. Mansour Abbas, leader of Ra'am, entered a historic coalition with Naftali Bennett in 2021, and Netanyahu previously opened talks with Abbas. Mohammed, a prospective voter who manages a mixed workforce at a technology firm, expects the opposition to adjust its stance once the results are finalized. He noted that the math of governance is simple, urging friends across different backgrounds to cast their ballots.

Palestinian leaders face their own challenges in negotiating with the opposition. None of the opposition parties advocate for a two-state solution, and most strongly oppose a Palestinian state while backing the settlement movement in the occupied West Bank. Tibi characterized the choice as one between "bad and worse," contrasting the opposition against Netanyahu, Bezalel Smotrich, and Itamar Ben-Gvir.

Fear is a driving force for many voters. Sami Abu Shehadeh, leader of the Balad party, identified fear as the biggest motivation for turnout. He cited the destruction in Gaza, violence in the West Bank, and rising discrimination inside Israel as factors that deepen worries about another four years of far-right rule. He stated that voters understand the danger if the current leaders return to power.

Institutional friction has complicated the race. Israel's supreme court effectively removed Abu Shehadeh from the ballot last month following an article he wrote about the October 7 attacks, a ruling criticized for applying different free speech standards to Jewish and Palestinian citizens. Conversely, a motion to disqualify security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir over racist language was not upheld. Some residents, including Haaretz journalist Nagham Zbeedat, abstain on principle, refusing to legitimize a system they perceive as treating their rights as favors.

Amjed Iraqi of the International Crisis Group observed that a returning far-right coalition would possess a renewed mandate to accelerate policies of ethnic cleansing and annexation. He described the vote as a measure of mitigation, noting that Palestinians can distinguish between right-wing and far-right governance. The election is set to take place two days before Kfar Qasim marks the 1956 massacre, in which border police killed 49 men, women, and children who had broken a curfew they were unaware of.