Israeli opposition: Minority cabinet plan divides alliance

Gadi Eisenkot is pressing the parties aligned against Benjamin Netanyahu to consider governing without a full parliamentary majority, a route he says could put an administration in place after the coming elections. Eisenkot, who seeks to head the bloc and serve as its candidate for prime minister, has floated assembling a cabinet that takes office with 58 or 59 seats in the Knesset. He rejects serving under Netanyahu in any rotation arrangement.

The arithmetic behind the proposal is straightforward. Polls place the anti-Netanyahu camp ahead of the outgoing coalition, yet the Zionist parties do not reach the 61 seats their existing agreements would require to govern. Some surveys also give Netanyahu's right-wing bloc enough seats for a majority. Under Eisenkot's approach, a cabinet would clear a confidence vote and then work to broaden its support in parliament.

The law governing confidence votes allows this. Swearing in a government requires a majority of those voting, not 61 affirmative votes, so abstentions can carry the day. A constructive vote of no confidence works differently and does require 61 lawmakers behind an alternative, a distinction that limits how the minority route could be used against a sitting Netanyahu government.

Two figures in the bloc reject the plan. Avigdor Liberman rules out a minority government even on a transitional basis and insists on a Zionist majority from the outset. A unity arrangement with Netanyahu is also unacceptable to him, and he has said another election would be preferable to a government that does not meet his terms. He has floated bringing Likud lawmakers into a cabinet without Netanyahu and said some would be willing, but he has named none, and no public talks with Likud lawmakers are underway. Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, who lead the Beyachad list, likewise demand a Zionist government and decline to rely on votes or abstentions from Arab parties. Yair Golan of the Democrats has not ruled out cooperation with Ra'am, and Eisenkot has not ruled out outside support from Ra'am, though no formula for the plan has been agreed.

A meeting this week between Eisenkot and Liberman ended with a joint call to raise turnout without settling their disagreement. The two also compete over who would lead: Eisenkot wants the largest party, while Bennett points to his experience as prime minister. Polls also leave open whether the electoral threshold shifts seat totals, and a small margin of votes could determine whether Israel gets a government or another election cycle.

The bloc is moving on a separate matter before any coalition agreement. Parties are reportedly close to agreement on replacing Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana, which would hand Netanyahu's opponents control of the parliamentary agenda even if he remains a caretaker prime minister. The speaker is chosen early in a new Knesset's term by open vote, and Arab party lawmakers could supply the votes to reach a majority behind a agreed candidate.

Names floated include Chili Tropper, Matan Kahana and Elazar Stern from Eisenkot's list, Meirav Ben-Ari and Eitan Ginzburg from the Bennett-Lapid list, Efrat Rayten of the Democrats, and attorney Oded Forer of Yisrael Beytenu. No candidate has been announced. Liberman estimated this week that as many as one-third of outgoing coalition lawmakers might vote against Ohana, though they would have to do so in public.

The bloc also plans to advance a state commission of inquiry into October 7, changes to conscription law, limits on the prime minister's tenure, and repeal of parts of the outgoing government's judicial changes. Liberman additionally seeks a bar on people facing criminal charges serving as prime minister. No binding agreement exists on details or sequence, and party teams have started coordinating. Party teams have begun coordinating on the details, though not every bloc member backs every judicial change, a new speaker would not by itself deliver a legislative majority, and laws aimed at Netanyahu could face constitutional challenges. The Bennett-Lapid government collapsed before completing promised laws, an episode that remains part of the discussion.