Lula and Bolsonaro close Brazilian campaign on tight polling

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro concluded their campaigns on Saturday with rallies that drew thousands of supporters in Brazil. The two candidates are set to face off in a runoff election on Sunday. Recent data indicates the race is statistically tied, with both men polling within the margin of error.

Lula, an 80-year-old incumbent seeking a fourth non-consecutive term, addressed a crowd at Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro. He wore a red hat and waved a national flag from a campaign truck. He referenced his rival’s connection to US President Donald Trump, stating that the public must choose between someone who kisses the national flag or the American flag.

Flavio Bolsonaro, a senator and son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, held his event in Minas Gerais. Hundreds of motorcyclists wearing yellow national football shirts participated in the gathering. Ebert Dorigo, a supporter, told AFP that the Workers' Party promoted reliance on welfare. He said, "The values we uphold are nation and family," and argued that hard work drives improvement rather than government support.

The campaign timeline shows a shift in momentum leading up to the vote. In the first round, Bolsonaro secured 47 percent of the vote compared to Lula's 45 percent. A CNT/MDA poll released a week prior placed Bolsonaro at 46.8 percent and Lula at 45.9 percent. The latest CNT/MDA data released on Saturday narrowed the gap, showing Bolsonaro at 46.3 percent and Lula at 45 percent. The poll’s margin of error is 2.2 percentage points.

The two men held a final debate on Friday where they maintained a calmer tone than earlier in the campaign. They continued to exchange accusations regarding the economy and their respective records. Bolsonaro has pledged to reduce government spending and add hundreds of thousands of prison places to address crime. His father, who served from 2019 to 2022, is currently serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup.

Gabriela Ribeiro Viana, an event organizer, told AFP that the choice between the two candidates feels difficult. She described the situation as choosing between the worst, the horrible, and the lesser evil. The vote will determine if Brazil remains under Lula’s leadership or joins a regional shift toward the right.

Voters will cast their ballots on Sunday. The result will decide whether Lula stays in office or if Flavio Bolsonaro takes the presidency. The final rally events on Saturday marked the end of the public campaign period.