First-Time Voters May Decide 12 Knesset Seats

Israelis go to the polls on Tuesday, Oct. 27, in an election where the voting choices of 640,000 first-time voters could determine the outcome for as many as 12 seats in the 120-member Knesset. The Israel Democracy Institute estimates these voters, aged 18 to 22, represent nearly 10% of the total electorate. Because the margin of victory in the current race is narrow, the turnout and preferences of this specific demographic group will carry unusual weight in determining the final seat distribution.

Yael Chernyvsky, an 18-year-old from Ramat Hasharon, expressed her motivation for participating in the vote. Speaking to the Jewish Telegraphic Agency earlier this month, she stated she is voting "so we can change the future of this country." Chernyvsky is currently in an army preparation program in the Negev. She has not finalized her choice but indicated she will "probably" support the Democrats, led by Yair Golan, or Yashar, led by Gadi Eisenkot. Both parties are part of the opposition change bloc, which aims to end the rule of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has held office since 2009 with a brief interruption in 2021 and 2022.

Tammy Hoffman, head of the education policy program at the IDI, co-sponsored an event with the Yigal Allon Center where more than 1,000 first-time voters gathered in a Tel Aviv auditorium. Hoffman noted that Israel has a high birth rate and a young population. She stated, "If their turnout is high, as our research suggests, first-time voters will make a difference." This assessment is supported by a May IDI survey of prospective Jewish and Arab voters, which found that 80% to 95% across population groups said they would definitely or probably vote. Secular Jewish youth showed the highest certainty, while 87% of Arab respondents said they intended to vote.

These figures stand in contrast to international data from the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, which recorded a youth turnout of 47% in the 2024 US presidential election. A separate poll conducted for Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth found that 67% of young respondents were certain they would vote, with another 19% believing they would participate.

Both surveys indicated that national security and the cost of living are the primary concerns for young Jewish and Arab voters. Hoffman explained that this focus is unsurprising given that these individuals were in junior high during the COVID-19 pandemic, witnessed the judicial reform protests, and lived through the events of Oct. 7. "They are worried about their future," she said.

Political leanings among this group remain fluid. An N12 poll from Sept. 23 found that 74% of young people described their views as right-wing or center-right, while 23% identified as left-wing or center-left. In that survey, 16% said they would vote for Eisenkot's Yashar and 14% for Netanyahu's Likud. Hoffman added that mock elections in high schools showed strong support for Yashar and Beyachad, the party led by former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, with some support for Likud and little for Itamar Ben-Gvir's far-right party.

Individual voters reflect this political spread. Omer Gross, an 18-year-old from Jerusalem in an army-prep program in the Golan, plans to support the Religious Zionist party led by Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin. He said, "We need a strong, secure Israel," citing support for West Bank policies despite disagreements on Gaza. His program-mate, Tomer Shiloh, 18, from Herziliyah, will vote for the change bloc to enforce IDF service for ultra-Orthodox men and lower living costs. A 22-year-old reservist, identified as Sgt. M, prioritizes universal service but will vote for the Democrats based on economic factors such as tuition and housing costs. Khalel Alaa Sabeh, 18, from Shef-Amra, wants an Arab party to address resource gaps and crime, stating, "I won't leave the country. This is my land, this is my home."

The Israel Democracy Institute and the Yigal Allon Center continue to monitor voter sentiment in the days leading up to the election. The final results will be tallied after polls close on Tuesday, with the composition of the new Knesset dependent on how these 640,000 eligible voters translate their stated intentions into ballots.