Analysts predict third U.S. Iran war phase after midterms

The conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has paused since February, but experts warn the break may be temporary. Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli military intelligence official who now works with the Institute for National Security Studies, predicts that fighting will resume once the U.S. midterm elections conclude on Nov. 3.

Citrinowicz, who spent more than 20 years in Israel's military intelligence, told CBC News that a renewed war appears almost inevitable. He noted that President Donald Trump faces only bad and worse options in the Persian Gulf. This assessment follows two distinct wars fought over the past 18 months under the leadership of Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The first conflict began in June 2025 with strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. That campaign lasted 12 days before a fragile ceasefire took hold. Fighting returned in February following a large U.S. military buildup, which opened with Israeli attacks on Iran's senior leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The third phase of the war, if it occurs, would likely target Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and communications lines. Citrinowicz specifically identified internet cables running beneath the Strait of Hormuz as probable targets. He also suggested Iran might deploy parts of its land army for limited attacks on Gulf states hosting U.S. bases, such as Kuwait and Bahrain, to damage the American economy.

Since the summer truce collapsed, direct strikes have been limited, but economic pressure has intensified. The U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports, while Iran has targeted commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. On Thursday, Trump accused Iran on Truth Social of inflating oil prices before the midterms by creating fake hits and mines. A report from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War agreed that these attacks aim to pressure Washington.

Iranian officials are demanding relief from sanctions, reparations for previous damage, the release of frozen assets, and the right to retain enriched uranium. Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have spent weeks attempting to restart talks without success. Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution warned that the war may have pushed Iran's leadership to double down on revolutionary ideology. She predicted that proxies like the Houthis and Hezbollah would retaliate against soft economic sites, including airports.

The human cost of the conflict is already high. Western non-governmental organizations report that more than 7,000 people have died in Iran. Lebanese media cite over 4,000 deaths in Lebanon. The U.S. has lost 21 service members, mostly in strikes on Gulf bases, while more than 70 Israelis have been killed. Deaths have also been recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen.

The Pentagon is currently drafting a new battle plan, according to The New York Times and other U.S. outlets, though it is unclear if Trump will approve it. Netanyahu, who faces a close election in the coming days, has spoken of finishing the job and bringing down the Iranian regime. Citrinowicz noted that a widening crisis could help Netanyahu maintain power by enabling an emergency unity government.

Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argued that diplomacy is not dead but has been narrowed by Trump's maximalist aims. Sadjadpour said Iran would only compromise under existential economic pressure paired with a clear diplomatic exit. He added that asking Iran to change its identity is not a strategy that will succeed.