116 Incidents: Student List Challenges 14-Year Ruling in Tight Serbian Vote

Serbia went to the polls on Sunday for a parliamentary election that political scientists describe as the most competitive in 14 years. The race pits the long-ruling Serbian Progressive Party, or SNS, against the Student List, a coalition born from two years of street protests. Analysts say the outcome is uncertain, marking the first time since 2012 that the governing party faces a genuine threat to its power.

The conflict centers on accountability for a disaster that sparked the movement. In November 2024, a concrete canopy collapsed at the Novi Sad railway station, killing 16 people. Students framed the incident as a symbol of institutional failure and corruption. They have campaigned on a platform of transparency and have attempted to transcend traditional ideological and foreign policy divisions in Serbian politics.

Thousands of supporters gathered in Belgrade on Thursday evening for the Student List's final rally. Many had walked for days from various parts of the country to reach the capital, demonstrating a show of solidarity. Arsa Stojanovic, a biology student, told the crowd that the walkers had visited villages across Serbia and found people willing to support them. Aleksandar Cupic, a transport engineering professor and candidate, said the atmosphere "smells like freedom." The event concluded with a traditional circle dance known as a kolo.

The campaign has been marked by reported irregularities and violence. By the final week, the independent monitoring group CRTA recorded 116 incidents of physical violence or verbal threats. These included attacks on campaigners and attempts to seize banners. CRTA also noted that opposition activists, particularly those linked to the Student List, faced surveillance and police questioning. The group concluded that the campaign was neither free nor fair, citing a narrowing of freedoms.

Media coverage skewed heavily toward the government. CRTA found that nearly 75% of airtime on national television went to government representatives. More than 80% of coverage regarding the Student List was negative. The Balkan Investigative Reporting Network published testimony from a former SNS member describing pressure on public sector employees to secure votes. Anonymous sources told Deutsche Welle that voters were offered between 30 and 150 euros, or family holiday packages, to support the SNS.

The SNS held its own closing rally a few kilometers from the student event. The party campaigned on a message of stability and continuity, warning that a change in government would bring chaos. Former President Aleksandar Vucic told supporters that opponents had attacked the party with billions of euros on foreign orders. The party framed the election as a battle for sovereignty, accusing rivals of serving foreign interests.

Political scientist Dusan Spasojevic said polls suggest the Student List could win more than 40% of the vote. He noted that a narrow margin is likely, which could lead to a post-election crisis. A close SNS victory, he added, would almost certainly be contested, and the student movement has vowed to defend every vote. Spasojevic emphasized that the international response, particularly from the European Union, could determine how the authorities handle the aftermath.

An EU Commission spokesperson stated that key recommendations for improving Serbia's electoral framework remain unimplemented. The spokesperson stressed that democracy and the rule of law are central to Serbia's accession process. Serbia has held candidate status for the European Union since 2012.