Majority of Shi'ites back state arms control

Lebanon's Shi'ite community has long served as the primary base for Hezbollah, but recent polling indicates a shift in public opinion regarding the group's military role.

A survey conducted in September by Statistics Lebanon found that 66.4% of 800 Lebanese Shi'ite respondents supported handing Hezbollah's weapons over to the state. In contrast, 29.6% of those surveyed wanted the group to retain its arsenal.

The results, reported by Israel's public broadcaster KAN and the Lebanese website Kataeb.org, show that 71.1% of respondents believe decisions on war and peace should rest solely with the Lebanese government. Only 5.9% said Hezbollah's leadership should have a larger role in shaping the country's future.

Confidence in the Lebanese Armed Forces appears to be rising within the community. Approximately 78.5% of respondents said they trusted the army, and 51.1% identified it as the institution best placed to guarantee long-term security. By comparison, only 16.5% chose Hezbollah for that role.

Sentiment regarding the recent conflict with Israel was mixed. Some 67.4% of respondents said Hezbollah had either failed to meet its goals in the war or achieved only some of them. Additionally, 42.1% expressed disappointment or anger about the group's leadership. Despite this criticism, 59.5% still reported some level of trust in the organization, with 37.1% indicating a great deal of trust.

Earlier data suggests a rapid change in public stance. A May 2026 survey cited by researchers Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni found that 87.5% of Shi'ite respondents opposed disarming Hezbollah. The gap between the May and September figures highlights a notable swing in opinion over a short period.

Local friction remains visible in the south. In Tyre, property owners reportedly opposed opening a branch of Al-Qard Al-Hassan, a financial institution linked to Hezbollah, due to fears of it becoming a target. Hezbollah has announced aid of up to $14,000 for families in Beirut and its southern suburbs whose homes were destroyed, and up to $12,000 for those in other areas.